State gets bad news on jobs

But economists fear we're in for more of the same for the foreseeable future, with small gains offset by setbacks as the economy teeters in the state of indecisiveness.Cisco Systems, the computer networking company, announced earlier this year that it could cut several hundred positions in Research Triangle Park as part of the tellurian reorganization. Progress Energy and Duke Energy on Friday announced, that they would eliminate 2,000 jobs in the state as part of their planned merger.Such losses will cut off the vital mercantile spigot to restaurants, retailers and alternative businesses that depend on the spending for their existence, which in turn could lead to more layoffs. As the result of such announcements, many businesses have been reluctant to add jobs."Business owners have been not following the rules of business," said Abel Zalcberg, owner of OFM, the furniture distribution company in Holly Springs that employs 35 people. "They're not planning, they're not you do marketing development, they're not you do product development. Everybody is just afraid of losing their job."Zalcberg's company, however, has dodged the mercantile fallout. While the market for office furniture has contracted, OFM has added the dozen employees in the past 2-1/2 years to emphasize service and take market share from paralyzed competitors, Zalcberg said.'Looks similar to the recession'Statewide, the economy has added an anemic 25,600 jobs. Economists say North Carolina would have needed to add about 40,000 jobs by this point to put the dent in the jobless rate."To me it looks similar to the economy stalled in July and August," said Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo in Charlotte. "A lot of people have been saying it looks similar to the recession because their pipeline of business has dried up."Not all economists were as alarmed. The monthly mercantile data have been based on two separate surveys, which usually mirror each other. This time, however, one survey showed the shrinkage of 14,524 workers, while the alt! ernative showed the state gaining 16,500 workers last month.The greatest gains have been in the government sector, mostly teachers returning to work in Aug after the summer vacation. The state also gained jobs in professional and business services as well as in education and health services. The greatest loss category was trade, transportation and utilities."The conclusion to me, looking over time, is that North Carolina has unequivocally been walking sideways," said economist James Kleckley, Director of the Bureau of Business Research at East Carolina University. "It's unequivocally been similar to that most of the year."The dual surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau have been based on the small sample of respondents and have been susceptible to inconsistencies.N.C. State University economist Michael Walden predicts that the state's jobless rate will barely budge this year, ending between 9.5 percent and 10 percent by Christmas.The state's top jobless rate appearance at 11.4 percent in February 2010, at the height of the recession. In March 2007, just months prior to the onset of the recession, the state's jobless rate was 4.5 percent.U.S. rate still 9.1%In August, the opening between North Carolina's jobless rate and the national rate widened. The nationwide rate remained unchanged in Aug at 9.1 percent.The Triangle job market has performed better than the rest of the state, but in July it, too, inched up - to 8.2 percent from 7.7 percent in May - as traditionally stable education and government jobs took the hit. Meanwhile, many of the state's rural counties, where manufacturing jobs have been wiped out, have been stuck in double-digit unemployment.Vitner said that mercantile statistics can sometimes conceal the depth of an mercantile downturn. For example, much of the recent job gains have been part-time, skewing statistical trends, he said."You could have 3 part-time jobs, and it would show up as 3 jobs, but you'd still be one employed person," Vitner said.